Market study
Market studies for projects and investors in South Africa
Revenue is the assumption funders discount hardest. A market study earns its place when it evidences demand at a price, in a location, against named competitors — not when it recites sector growth rates.
Why funding stalls before it starts
Market sections in project documents often describe an industry rather than a market. National growth figures and macro commentary tell a funder nothing about whether this project will sell this output at this price.
The questions that decide credit are narrower: who buys, at what price, on what terms, how far away is the nearest competing supply, and what happens to absorption if the price moves ten percent.
We scope market work to the decisions it must support, commission independent research where the evidence is thin, and reconcile the findings with the revenue lines in the financial model so the two cannot contradict each other.
Sources of capital
What market work covers
- Demand and absorption analysis
- Catchment-level demand, take-up rates and realistic ramp, tested against comparable projects rather than national averages.
- Pricing and affordability
- Achievable price or rental points evidenced by transactions, income bands and willingness to pay in the actual catchment.
- Competitive supply
- Existing, under construction and approved competing supply, with timing and the effect on absorption.
- Offtake and customer evidence
- Letters of intent, term sheets and signed offtake, weighted by counterparty strength rather than counted.
- Regulatory and pricing environment
- Tariffs, subsidies, import parity, licensing and policy exposure that move revenue independently of demand.
What funders test
What funders test in a market study
- Defined catchment
- A geographically specific market boundary with a stated rationale, not a provincial or national frame.
- Primary evidence
- Fieldwork, transaction data, interviews or contracted offtake alongside desktop research and published sources.
- Named competitors
- Competing supply identified by project, operator and timing, with the pipeline effect quantified.
- Price defensibility
- Revenue assumptions benchmarked to observable transactions and reconciled to the financial model line by line.
- Downside absorption case
- What the project looks like at slower take-up or lower price, and whether it still services debt.
- Independence
- Research authored by a party without a fee outcome tied to the project proceeding.
36M HIP™
How 36M Capital prepares the project
We define the market questions that actually decide the funding outcome, brief independent researchers accordingly, and integrate the findings into the model, the risk register and the investment case.
- 01
Identify
Define commercially relevant opportunities.
- 02
Screen
Assess strategic fit, commercial potential and sponsor capability.
- 03
Shape
Develop the commercial model and delivery strategy.
- 04
Prepare
Coordinate governance, documentation, partnerships and readiness.
- 05
Validate
Assess preparedness for institutional engagement.
- 06
Transition
Introduce mature opportunities into formal capital structuring and transaction processes.
Scoping market work for a project
If your project's revenue case rests on sector commentary, bring what you hold. We begin with a mutual non-disclosure agreement and identify the market evidence a funder will require before committing capital.